Well, we survived the pancake

[cleolinda]

Okay, I have to clean out my linkspam before I start blogging the Oscars, so:

Snowstorm heads east after blasting West. Oh, fantastic.

Man sought in foiled Florida kidnapping: "A 13-year-old boy bound to a tree in the woods foiled a kidnapping-for-ransom plan by using a safety pin, his teeth and his hands to escape, police said Sunday."

Boston flips over another ad campaign.

Paper: Strom family enslaved Rev. Al kin.

Strange New Creatures Found in Antarctica.

Text messages land teacher in hot water: "A middle school teacher trying to buy pot was arrested after she sent text messages to a state trooper instead of a dealer, police said."

Principal deems Jesus chant offensive, italics mine: "A Catholic school principal has organized sensitivity training for students who shouted 'We love Jesus' during a basketball game against a school with Jewish students."

Virtual terror strikes Second Life.

NYCC 2007: Stephen King's Cell Next for Roth.

So, here's how the Oscar blogging works, for those of y'all who are new: God and my internet connection willing, I blog the show live and hit post during the commercial breaks. I'm hearing that the show is going to be particularly overlong tonight, so there's going to be a lot of posts. Everything will be behind a cut to minimize the assault on your friendslist, and if you defriend me or filter me out for the night, I will be typing too hard to notice totally understand. My hands usually start to cramp up about two hours in, at which point I will start e-whimpering. I will spend tomorrow recovering and/or fuming over whoever lost. I'm not blogging any of the red carpet shows, but if any pictures show up before the show starts, please link me so I can get a good look at the outfits and spend that much less time trying to describe what someone's wearing.

Oscar predictions (see full list of nominees): Sadly, Oscar.com has locked the pool and I won't actually get to play. Fie.

The big categories:

>> Best Actor: Forest Whitaker. Duh. Oscar Central reports that only a few brave souls are even predicting Peter O'Toole.

>> Best Actress: Helen Mirren. Again, duh. Oscar Central reports that no one is predicting anyone else. In fact, didn't that bookie in London already pay out all the bets laid on Mirren last week? If there is some kind of earth-shattering upset, I'd predict Judi Dench. If.

>> Best Supporting Actor: Most of us are expecting Eddie Murphy, although the ill-timed release of Norbit may have taken the shine off his chances. Mark Wahlberg has a lot of goodwill behind him, but I suspect his nomination is much like Ryan Gosling's: he should just be thrilled to be here for what it'll do for his career. If anyone steals it out from Murphy, I suspect it'll be Alan Arkin.

>> Supporting Actress: Oscar Central only lists one prediction for Abigail Breslin--all the others are for Jennifer Hudson. I'll tell you this, though: if Breslin and/or Arkin win, you'll know the score for Best Picture.

>> Best Director: You know, I honestly think that if Scorsese doesn't taket his one--pity Oscar or not--there may actually be booing in the auditorium. If he doesn't take it, Paul Greengrass might, but I suspect it would line up with whichever movie then ends up winning Best Picture--Iñárritu or Eastwood. So what I’m saying is, Scorsese winning does not mean The Departed will automatically win, since there’s a sentimental reason behind the voting; but if Iñárritu or Eastwood win, Babel or Letters from Iwo Jima will probably follow. Assuming either man lives to take the stage, of course.

>> Best Picture: You know what? The only thing I am sure of is that The Queen won’t win. I just don’t think it’ll resonate with American voters; it’s another one of those “Should be thrilled to be here” nominations. As for the other four? I have no idea. Babel seemed to have it in the bag early on; then Little Miss Sunshine seemed to take the lead. In fact, I was walking through the den and heard some talking head on Fox saying that LMS was the expected winner, which I find astonishing on some level--not because it's a comedy, but because it's such a small movie. It's the kind of movie that's not a Best Picture--not every movie has to be, you know. It's a little movie, and that's the niche it fills, and I like it all the more for being one. As someone else (oh, my dying brain cells) put it, I'd (also) rather it not win that be the movie everyone resents for not being worthy of it. I'm putting down The Departed just because; among those three movies, I have no idea.

Mid-range categories:

>> Animated: Well, Cars has been winning most of everything so far.

>> Art Direction: Man, I would really like to go with POTC2 for this one, if only because I am completely biased the sets--particularly Tia Dalma's shack--were really fine work. Most predictors seem to be going with Pan's Labyrinth, however.

>> Cinematography: Children of Men, widely--but not universally--predicted. The entire slate is extremely strong here (I would be perfectly happy with The Illusionist), but COM actually brings some innovation to the table as well.

>> Costume Design: Curse of the Golden Flower actually won the guild award for this one, and I've said all along that it's Marie Antoinette's biggest threat. I'm still going with MA, though.

>> Documentary: Most likely An Inconvenient Truth, the most widely viewed of the nominees.

>> Film editing: This is a tough category to call. I would like to see Children of Men win this one, but it's probably going to come down to Babel and The Departed, and because Babel involves intertwining storylines, I'm going with that one as a prediction. If Babel doesn't win big, this might be one of its consolation prizes.

>> Foreign language: Pan's Labyrinth. Accept no substitutes.

>> Makeup: I'm guessing Pan's Labyrinth for this one, as it actually involves heavy (and creative) use of prosthetics. Pan's Labyrinth is also a good guess in almost any category where it appears, given that it received more nominations than any other foreign film not also nominated for Best Picture.

>> Score: I really don't know--the Golden Globe winner, The Painted Veil, wasn't even nominated. I'm hearing predictions falling mostly to either The Queen or Babel, so I'm just going to flat-out guess The Queen. Ironically, this is one of the few nominated movies I've seen, and I can't remember the score at all; if I'd had my way, The Illusionist and The Fountain would have somehow been up for this as well. (And I don't know if POTC2 was eligible, given its re-use of themes from the first movie, but... I love the kraken music. I can't help it!)

>> Song: I'm hearing mostly that "Listen," one of the three Dreamgirls songs, is probably going to take it. It came out yesterday that the three actresses will all perform, but they're going to switch up songs; I don't know which one was originally Beyoncé’s, but I would not be surprised to find out she or her father were involved in making sure she got to sing this one on the show.

>> Screenplay (adapted): I'm hearing mostly The Departed for this one.

>> Screenplay (original): Mostly Little Miss Sunshine for this one.

>> Visual effects: I just watched POTC2 with my sister last night--she actually hadn't gotten around to seeing it yet, due to her school/work schedule--and I'm telling you, if it doesn't win this category, it will be highway robbery.


Categories no one ever knows:

>> Documentary short: The Blood of Yingzhou District. Not unanimous, but it's what I'm hearing the most.

>> Animated short: I'm hearing The Little Matchgirl, particularly from people who have seen it.

>> Live-action short: It seems to be narrowed down to Binta y la gran idea and West Bank Story. I'm going with Binta on a complete whim.

>> Sound editing: I'm hearing Letters from Iwo Jima for this one, although I would like POTC2 to win, and have absolutely no idea otherwise.

>> Sound mixing: I'm hearing Dreamgirls, aptly enough, for this one.

All right, I’m off to grab a late lunch. See you in--three?

Comments

[secretnthewings.livejournal.com]

I think my favorite part about this is that CleoIcon got all gussied up for the occasion. So glamorous! :-)

[cleolinda.livejournal.com]

Actually, I have multiple gowns for the occasion.

[secretnthewings.livejournal.com]

Ooh! I'm impressed!

...and also maybe a little sad that I'm being out-dressed by a 100x100 square.

[cleolinda.livejournal.com]

I'm a little sad that I'm putting on lip gloss for a TV show. C'est la vie, I guess.

[apocalypsos.livejournal.com]

Oh, yes, The Little Matchgirl was lovely, and also made me bawl like an infant.

I agree with you on Little Miss Sunshine, too. I love it enough not to want it to be that movie everybody thinks didn't deserve to win.

[lotusbiosm.livejournal.com]

Well, but "The Little Matchgirl" is pretty much a guaranteed cry, no matter how you tell it. I don't think that Disney should get props for making you cry when the source material is so sob-inducing to begin with.
Also, I've said it before and I'll say it again- the big studio nominees feel like they're more about the art than the story, and more about "let's see what we can do" than "how can we best tell this story." The Fox nominee was pretty much just a glorified DVD extra- it was cute, but not Oscar-worthy.
I'm happy to see the Academy award storytelling above sheer "ooh, shiny".

[gabsy.livejournal.com]

3 nights ago, I would have been in complete agreement with you over Pan's Labyrinth for Best Foreign Language film, but then I saw Indigènes (which representes Algeria but is actually a French film, mostly) the other night, and now I'm torn apart.

[madamechong.livejournal.com]

I'm pulling for The Lives of Others in the Foregin Film category, even though I know it probably hasn't got a snowball's chance in hell.

It's a beautiful story, well-acted, well-filmed, and in a perfect world, would beat the pants off of Pan.

[eofs.livejournal.com]

I've not seen any of the foreign films (waiting very impatiently for The Lives of Others to come out here) but I'm pulling for it too. The Oscar was stolen from Germany 2 years ago. I've heard it said that LoO ought to have been a best picture nom.

But I too will be astonished if Pan doesn't get it. Sigh. (I can't help but feel that if Sophie Scholl had got the Oscar, I'd have been able to see it in the cinema. I fear the same will happen with Lives of Others, except this time I'm not living near an arthouse/European cinema anyway.)

[derangeddarling.livejournal.com]

I'm glad your blogging. That winter storm is hitting Chicago hard, and I'm worried about my cable. My cousin's on the southside (i'm on the northside) is already out.

*cross fingers*

[madamechong.livejournal.com]

Hey, would you mind giving credit to the fan artist who drew the Tortall Powderpuff character you're using in your icon?

Her DeviantArt account is secondglance (http://secondglance.deviantart.com/) in case you didn't know. :)

Thanks!

[ironclad1609.livejournal.com]

I don't want Murphy to get it and mostly because of Norbit, actually. (ignoring the fact that I don't care for movies like Dreamgirls)
I just want Djimon Hounsou. Not gonna happen, I know.

I agree with most of your assumptions, I guess.
Gonna be a long night over here in Germany :P

[txvoodoo.livejournal.com]

"Strange New Creatures Found in Antarctica. "

Totally passed that link onto our fish club :D

[platinum-cobra.livejournal.com]

Hey, whats a great site for red carpet pics? hope ur internet works all day, and ur tv.

[cleolinda.livejournal.com]

So far I've been hanging out at www.eonline.com, although http://news.search.yahoo.com/news/search?p=oscars+2007&c=news_photos will have a lot in a few hours.

[platinum-cobra.livejournal.com]

Thanks.

[sunshine95.livejournal.com]

"Listen" is Beyoncé’s big triumphant solo song in the movie, so if that article you linked to yesterday is right and no one is singing their song from the movie, then that's actually really weird. Neither of the other nominated songs from Dreamgirls ("Love You I Do" and "Patience") are big, belt-it-out numbers, so I'm surprised Beyoncé would agree to sing anything besides "Listen." Bizarre. I guess we'll just have to watch the telecast and see what's what.

[greenleafgurl17.livejournal.com]

So pumped for the Oscars! I might take my laptop into the other room so I can watch and read the blogs at the same time, but my battery only lasts two hours, so yeah.

Also, I agree with what you said about Best Picture...it's going to be a tough one! I was wondering--is it possible that there could be a tie? I've never heard of that happening, but I suppose it *could*...

Anyways, I would like to see The Departed or LMS win.

[meredith-mae.livejournal.com]

Here is a picture of the actual site of the oscars that I took early today (the police wouldn't let me get any closer). you can kind of see the big gold guys and the bleachers!



Pretty sure that's the only time I'll be able to stand in the middle of Hollywood Boulevard. Because the street is all blocked off.



And my friend thinks that Letters From Iwo Jima might pull through and win the big prize as an upset. And he thinks I should listen to him because he was right about Crash.

[cleolinda.livejournal.com]

Tell him he's not alone--John Scalzi is predicting the same thing.

[skyblade.livejournal.com]

I don't think Little Miss Sunshine winning would be the biggest travesty in Oscar history, or even in the last 366 days. But it kind of has to suck to be Wes Anderson though, to have someone else make the kind of movies you've been making for years, then clean up in statuettes. If Sunshine wins, I think his next movie is owed a best picture nomination, even if it's the most twee, self-indulgent work ever.

[sound-of-bells.livejournal.com]

Seconded. I mean, I adored Little Miss Sunshine, and I'm rooting for it, but... really.

[ninepointfivemm.livejournal.com]

GOD yes. And I think Wes' work is a lot, lot better than Little Miss Sunshine.

[cleojones.livejournal.com]

Aww Jennifer Hudson's probably self-conscious about her arms, that's the only reason, I can see why she would ruin that gorgeous gown with that ugly tacky jacket.
Please, someone, tell her to TAKE IT OFF!!

[punzerel.livejournal.com]

A whole bunch of the foreign language films look amazing, really - I'm hoping for Water, because it's Canadian and because it was a beautiful film, but I haven't managed to seen PL or The Lives of Others yet.

[threemagisteria.livejournal.com]

From the Strange New Creatures in Antarctica link:

"Several strange creatures including a psychedelic octopus have been found in frigid waters off Antarctica in one of the world’s most pristine marine environments."

Psychedelic Octopus, people. That's got to be an album title.

[meredith-mae.livejournal.com]

Screw the album. The name of a band!

The octopus was cool, too.

[tattooed-soul.livejournal.com]

Fifteen to 18 inches of snow had fallen around Winona, Minn., and La Crosse, Wis., by Saturday evening, according to the weather service.

Yup, thats where I am. And its still snowing. I get to walk to school tomorrow because my car is snowed in, plus there's an inch of ice under the tires.

[gwynevere1.livejournal.com]

I'm honestly more excited about your blogging than I am about the actual awards show.

[cleolinda.livejournal.com]

Aww, bless. Of course, I'm going to suck now.

[katzies.livejournal.com]

I'm a huge fan of Miss Cleolinda's award show bloggings, without them they all are sort of boring.

(Team LEO!!)

[eofs.livejournal.com]

The Oscars aren't shown on real television here, so I'm watching the Oscars by refreshing your blog. I'll understand more this way than I would on TV anyway. And your commentary will compensate for losing the ad-break commentary we had when they were on the BBC (since they don't show adverts.)

No pressure or anything ;0)

[stagemanager.livejournal.com]

Thank you for blogging this -- I'm stuck at work until 6 (PST) and then stuck on the bus getting home till 7:30. I imagine I'll get the last hour which, really, is the most important.

And I saw all your icons as they were uploaded. (I'm freaky that way.)

[mysticowl.livejournal.com]

Are you watching the Barbara Walters special? Helen Mirren was great!

My shill he sappy

[elbales]

Cleo, I have spam Subject line poetry for you, because... uh, you know you love it?

My shill he sappy. Yep.
. . . Mr. Kurtz, he dead. I'm just sayin'.

Re: My shill he sappy

[cleolinda.livejournal.com]

Heeeeeeeeeee.

[particle-person.livejournal.com]

J.K. Rowling sued eBay (http://www.the-leaky-cauldron.org/?articleID=9560)! I love it when Rowling sets out to cut a bitch.