Oscar nomination follow-up

[cleolinda]

'Dreamgirls' picks up most Oscar nods. Well, yes, that does tend to happen when you get THREE SONG NOMINATIONS WTF.

The musical "Dreamgirls" led Academy Awards contenders Tuesday with eight nominations, but surprisingly was shut out for best picture, positioning the ensemble drama "Babel" or the mob saga "The Departed" as potential front-runners. "Babel" was close behind with seven nominations, including best picture and acting honors for two newcomers to U.S. audiences, Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi. "The Departed" had five nominations, among them best picture, a directing slot for Martin Scorsese and a supporting-actor honor for Mark Wahlberg.

So basically, you subtract the three song nominations, and you're left with... five. Which is equal to The Departed and fewer than Babel.

("I wasn't expecting it at all. I can't believe it. I was sound asleep. My agent called and was screaming," said Wahlberg, who plays a caustic, wisecracking cop. "I thought the house was on fire or something.")

(Playing a mom who hangs out at the park with her child in "Little Children," Winslet appropriately learned of her nomination while dropping her daughter off at school. "I really am a soccer mom," Winslet said, who earned her fifth Oscar nomination. "I am so happy. I am going to be screaming and whooping all day long. I really thought I wasn't going to get a nomination. I am really going to try to enjoy this moment. I'm speechless. It feels like I've never been nominated before.")

Other facts we learn from the AP: "An eighth loss for [Peter] O'Toole, who nearly turned down an honorary Oscar three years ago because he hoped to earn one outright, would put him in the record books as the actor with the most nominations without winning.... This finally may be the year for another perennial loser, Scorsese, who's tied with four other directors for the Oscar-futility record of five nominations and five losses. The Departed marks Scorsese's return to the cops-and-mobsters genre he mastered in decades past and is considered his best shot to finally win an Oscar, though a sixth defeat would put him alone in the record book as the losingest director ever."

Meanwhile, Al Gore 'thrilled' by Oscar nominations. "Who says politics is show business for ugly people?" Oh, that was low, Associated Press.

Re: Abigail Breslin:

Breslin is the fourth-youngest actress to be nominated in a competitive category, edged out by a mere matter of months. O'Neal, Mary Badham of 1962's "To Kill a Mockingbird" and Quinn Cummings of 1977's "The Goodbye Girl" were all 10 when nominated.

The youngest actor ever nominated was 8-year-old Justin Henry, who was up for best supporting actor in 1980 for "Kramer vs. Kramer." Nine-year-old Jackie Cooper was nominated for best actor in 1931 for his leading performance in "Skippy," adapted from a comic strip. In 2000, 11-year-old Haley Joel Osment was nominated for his performance in "The Sixth Sense."

Only three actors or actresses younger than 17 have won an Academy Award. The good news for Breslin, though, is that all of the wins have come in the supporting-actress category: O'Neal, 11-year-old Anna Paquin for "The Piano" in 1994, and 16-year-old Patty Duke for "The Miracle Worker" in 1963.

Quick predictions. Note: I haven't seen a lot of these movies. Many of them haven't come to town, or only stayed for about thirty seconds. I'm relying on reviews, word of mouth, prior awards, and general Oscarwatch scuttlebutt here. Ironically? That actually makes it easier to predict winners than if I had emotional attachments to these movies. I mean, you'll notice I keep rooting for Little Miss Sunshine and Children of Men, one of which isn't going to win Best Picture, and the other of which can't. "I loved that movie" is actually a really bad reason to pick something in your local Oscar pool because--and this is a key point here, so write this down--you didn't get to vote. I often win pools because I keep an ear to the ground regarding what people who do get to vote seem to favor. Keep that in mind when making your picks.

The Supporting Actress race is the most interesting one to me at this point, now that Meryl Streep is safely over in Best Actress, because I have no idea who might actually end up winning. Conventional wisdom has said Jennifer Hudson for weeks, if not months, now, but Dreamgirls itself got snubbed (and may be suffering from a "You know, it wasn't really that good" backlash), and Abigail Breslin might ride in on the strength of the Little Miss Sunshine Best Picture nomination. Kikuchi and Barraza could easily cancel each other out--"Which one from Babel do we vote for?"--which leaves Blanchett, the only veteran at all in the category. On the other hand, she's already got a very recent Supporting statuette. Which leads me to think that Hudson may still have a slight edge over Breslin, but it could come down to the two of them. I honestly would not be shocked by a "surprise" win by Hudson, Breslin or Blanchett, although I think I really would be surprised if Kinkuchi or Barraza walked away with it. It may also depend on how many awards Babel itself wins, as a measure of the Academy's enthusiasm. It's kind of a measure of the tightness of this contest, though, that any of these women would be a "surprise win" at this point.

Best Supporting Actor: I think there's room to move here, but as of today, I would go with Eddie Murphy. I think the SAG awards this weekend will be interesting--if it goes to Murphy, I'd say he's solid. On the other hand, Wahlberg is getting a surprising amount of support for someone who used to go by Marky Mark. Logically I would say Murphy or possibly Arkin--both of them unrewarded veterans--but Earth logic doesn't always have much to do with it. With the lead categories, the Academy tends to be a little stodgier about the dues-paying; with supporting, first-time nominees (I almost want to say novelty nominees) often walk away with it.

Best Actress is still Helen Mirren's to lose. I remember that year when it was Sissy Spacek's to lose for In the Bedroom, and we all thought that she couldn't lose--until the Halle Berry enthusiasm began to build mid-season. So I guess I'd say check the SAGs as a barometer--if Mirren wins, it's pretty much going to have been unanimous across the board. She's a legend; she doesn't have one (as Judi Dench does), and her movie's put in a good showing across the major categories (unlike Kate Winslet's. Quite frankly, given how ignored Little Children has been, I'm shocked she sneaked in at all). Mirren is also regarded as a legend of the English stage, as opposed to Penélope Cruz, whose acting in English is... really not very good. Fortunately, Cruz is nominated for a performance in her native language. Unfortunately, that doesn't help the perception of those who've only seen her in English-language movies that she's really, really not good. And then there's Streep, who probably has the most iconic performance of the batch next to Mirren's, but... again: next to Mirren's. For a fairly fluffy movie. And Streep already has a metric buttload of awards. Mirren's due; she's the Queen.

Best Actor: Logically Peter O'Toole should get this one, as Venus feels like one more stab at Oscarbait in the twilight of old age, and he's never won before. But I really, really do not perceive anything but the most perfunctory enthusiasm for O'Toole in this role--I feel like people are backing it for O'Toole's sake, not for the performance or the movie itself. And I like Peter O'Toole. Whereas Forest Whitaker, another (albeit younger) veteran, has put in pretty much the performance of a lifetime as Idi Amin. And previous awards have been just as consistent regarding Whitaker as they have been Mirren. I could see an O'Toole upset--and that is what it would be at this stage, an upset--but I don't see DiCaprio or Smith unseating Whitaker, and it's a major career advancement for Gosling just to be here.

Foreign: With Volver out of the way (seriously, what happened there?), Pan's Labyrinth has an excellent shot at winning, particularly considering that it's the only foreign nominee to get multiple nominations up against the "regular" movies. (ETA: skyblade informs me that it's gotten more nominations than any other foreign film not also nominated for Best Picture. Which it totally should have been.)

Animated: Cars seems to take it most of the time; it's Pixar, let's go with that. Although I'm still on Team Uvula for Monster House.

Costume: Marie Antoinette.

Documentary: Probably An Inconvenient Truth, based on its popularity (and public-awareness importance) alone, but I kind of wish Deliver Us from Evil could win.

Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean. Not only is Davy Jones fantastic, they're running a really good awareness campaign, if you remember that FX presentation site I linked a while back.

Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth.

The other categories are either too soon to tell (Screenplays), an embarrassment of riches (Cinematography, for example) or I have no idea (Short Films).

Song: Whichever song Jennifer Hudson sings. It's just a guess. (Which is something else I found out: each of the three songs has a different singer--Murphy, Hudson, and Beyoncé. The show producers might squish these together as a medley, I don't know, but they'd hardly refuse two Supporting nominees the chance to perform. I'm crossing my fingers for an epic catfight backstage.)

Best Director: I kind of feel like the nomination for Paul Greengrass was a tribute to United 93 in itself; I don't know that Greengrass actually has a shot at winning. I feel like it's probably down to 1) an institutional pity/embarrassment vote for Scorsese or 2) depending on what ends up winning Best Picture, possibly Iñárritu over Eastwood. The reason I say Iñárritu is that the surprise nomination for Adriana Barraza--Kikuchi most of us at least expected--suggests a lot of enthusiasm for Babel. A lot of early enthusiasm for Eastwood and Iwo Jima seems to have dissipated--no nomination for Watanabe, for example--although I obviously didn't fly out to Hollywood and take a poll or anything, so this is my unscientific gut feeling. Also, my fear that I will actually die of combustible fury if Clint Eastwood wins this again.

Best Picture: Given the way that the Globes turned out, I'd say Babel's the frontrunner at the moment. On one hand, Brad Pitt didn't get a nomination; on the other hand, that category was competitive already, Pitt doesn't get a lot of credit for his acting (unless he's doing one of his smaller, crazier roles), and Adriana Barraza did slip into Supporting Actress. If Iñárritu wins Best Director, you'll know the writing's on the wall. But I really do think Scorsese might finally take that one, although the lack of acting nominations for The Departed (aside from Wahlberg--Wahlberg) suggests that he won't grab Best Picture as well. After a mid-season surge, much like the one Dreamgirls had, Iwo Jima seems to be ceding ground to Babel. And, like Gosling, Little Miss Sunshine should just be happy to be here. I don't think Director and Picture should have to match by any means, but when your directors aren't even nominated, it's pretty much over for your chances at actually winning Best Picture. The Queen seems like more of an acting showcase than anything, and while it's being recognized for being a very good one, I feel like Helen Mirren and possibly the script are attracting all the heat there. I'd say Babel right now, but we've still got a month for things to change.

Note about director/picture splits: A lot of it depends on why the movie is attracting awards enthusiasm. A cast full of accomplished veterans and a brilliant script--but perhaps some pedestrian direction, and perhaps on purpose, to let the words and the actors shine--might leave the perception that the director didn't contribute all that much. Four Weddings and a Funeral was actually nominated for Best Picture about twelve years ago, and if it had won Best Picture, I could see another movie's director--let's say, Tarantino--winning instead of Mike Newell.* On the other hand, you've got directors like Oliver Stone, Steven Soderbergh, or even Alfonso Cuarón who turn in visual tour-de-forces that might actually be, on a story level, somewhat flawed. I loved Children of Men, obviously, but a few people pointed out like it felt like the last third of a much more involved movie. It was brilliant the way they either cut out exposition or expressed it through set decoration, but the result was also that the movie felt like one long chase sequence. Which, again, is an approach that can have a purpose behind it (the sense that you, like the main character, have been swept up into some inexplicable nightmare), but stacked against a more well-rounded piece of storytelling, might seem like a less successful movie. On the other hand, Children of Men has groundbreaking camerawork, innovative framing, and evocative color grading. Cuarón is the kind of director you would split the awards for. Paul Greengrass took a cast full of unknowns--on purpose--and where possible, stuck to dialogue that was spoken during real events, and turned United 93 into a sensitive but visceral experience. Greengrass is the kind of director you'd split the awards for. Ironically, so is Iñárritu--and so are Little Miss Sunshine's Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, who weren't even nominated. And while Scorsese is also the kind of visually powerful director you might split the awards for, The Departed is also a very strong, well-reviewed movie. In fact, I'd say the only drawbacks to The Departed are the fact that it's a remake, and the fact that it's a less serious genre--cops and mobsters--than, let's say, WWII, or International Tragedy, Woe. So I really do feel like this year, given who's nominated, Picture and Director normally would go together--because when you've got the acting, the script, and the visual flair together, you've got the full package--except that there's this powerful sense of embarrassment surrounding Scorsese's Oscarlessness, and they might decide to give Best Director to him while, if he already had a statue, they might give it to the director of the picture this year that actually wins. I personally have no problem with the concept, and I understand why they do it, and it makes sense to me. And if you didn't accept the need for a split some years, why wouldn't Best Director just be part and parcel of Best Picture? I mean, you'll notice there's no Best Producer; the producer accepts Best Picture. Am I making any sense here?

* (Actual winner: Forrest Gump. Fellow losers: Pulp Fiction, Shawshank Redemption, Quiz Show. Sigh.)

Anyway, after all that blather, it's off to make dinner.

Comments

[sound-of-bells.livejournal.com]

I'd just like to say that this post made me extraordinarily happy. I live for movies, and thence the Oscars, and enjoy rambling about them at great lengths, which my friends and family put up with, but... not, in fact, all that enthusiastic. So it's really, really nice to get to read the thoughts of somebody who, in addition to being funny, is just as obsessed (if not more so) than I am.

I'm still deluding myself into thinking that LMS might have a shot. I was talking with my mother about it (it's the only movie besides The Queen she's seen), and the complete lack of a frontrunner, coupled with LMS's recent popularity - IF it continues and grows in the coming month - might, perhaps, MAYBE give it a shot. It's a stretch, I know. But The Queen is this year's Capote and Iwo Jima is its Munich, which pretty much rules them out. I feel like Babel, although it's had recent popularity, got such bad reviews - comparatively - that it won't win. My money, at the moment, is on The Departed, because it got such critical acclaim, and the acting was supposedly so great (I need to see it!), and it's Scorsese. But it also didn't get as many nominations as it was expected to. LMS, on the other hand, got several, in big categories, and was so incredibly unique and hysterical that it could, possibly, pull it off. Usually humor hurts a movie, but it might be the thing that pulls it foward this year because there isn't one movie that everbody is expecting to win.

That being said I know it's not at all likely. But I can hope.

[cleolinda.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I suspect that Babel is overrated, and its reviews really haven't been as solid, but the recent surge in voter popularity there suggests to me that awards types haven't noticed that yet. That's why I think that, if the ballots were cast and mailed in today, it would probably win. A lot can happen in a month. I think LMS could win, possibly, if its popularity continues to grow, but it would still be a huge upset, whereas I don't even think The Queen could win, period. I just don't think American voters will bond that deeply with a movie about someone else's monarchy. I'm actually surprised that Babel is as popular in the voting as it is; all I can think is that intertwining storylines have been popular for a while now.

And yeah, I actually wrote a long and rambly article called "Oscar Logic" for a dinky little movie news site I used to run, so I can pontificate with the best of 'em. : )

[ter369.livejournal.com]

I just don't think American voters will bond that deeply with a movie about someone else's monarchy.

They do when the film is about resisting a monarchy, or focused on a monarch's flaw, as in A Man For All Seasons and Braveheart.

[cleolinda.livejournal.com]

Well, this is true. We are a nation founded on rebellion, after all. What I always do, though, is ask myself if Academy members would sit back and say, "This is the movie that we want to be remembered for awarding this year." Hindsight being what it is, they often make choices that look ridiculous years later. I thought Crash was a boneheaded choice last year, but interweaving storylines are kind of trendy as an automatic way to signal "This is a deep movie," and it since it was overtly about racial prejudice (what's that Avenue Q song? "Everyone's a Little Bit Racist"?), they probably figured they could vote for it and feel good about themselves at the end of the day. Whereas I feel like Brokeback Mountain is going to be the filmmaking that people remember 20 years from now. And I just don't see The Queen being--or being perceived as--that movie. Helen Mirren's performance, yes--but like a lot of biopics, the performance kind of ends up being the movie.

[lenamoster.livejournal.com]

I seriously count on you for my movie intelligence, and this post is why. For today, yu win my internet.

[honorh.livejournal.com]

I've actually seen more of the Foreign Language films than the Best Picture ones. I haven't seen any of the Best Picture nominees, but I've seen Pan's Labyrinth and Water, both of which were powerful. Of the two, I'd prefer Water to win, but Pan's Labyrinth probably will.

[sigma7.livejournal.com]

mightygodking sounded off on the nominations and his picks (http://mightygodking.livejournal.com/293008.html), and I think you'd enjoy his analysis (and not just because it seems like you're on the same page in several spots). In fact, his cinematic ruminations (http://mightygodking.livejournal.com/293008.html) are well worth your time, an even balance of cunning insight and rapier wit. Like you don't have enough to read, I know; just an unsolicited pimping of a fellow LJers worthy work.

And I'm very glad your hand hasn't exploded. Too Cronenberg for you.

[sigma7.livejournal.com]

Crap, wrong link for his movie stuff (http://mightygodking.livejournal.com/tag/flicks). Dammit. Bad clipboard; no cookie.

Nominations and stuff

[purpleivey.livejournal.com]

I could be remembering wrong, but I thought Shirley Temple won an Oscar when she was, like, 6 or something. Granted it was for a category that no longer exists - "Best Juvenile Actress," meaning "under 18." I know Judy Garland won an oscar in that catgory for Wizard of Oz. But when they say "youngest nominated for a competitive category" I guess they mean actualy best actress or best supporting... 'cause with Best Juvenile Actress, it was more a nominal award, as there generally weren't that many other people to nominate - sorta like the Best Animated Feature category.

It seemed like The Queen got a lot of nominations, too. I'm almost thinking that one's gonna sneak up and win best picture and take everyone by suprise.

[ellaafleck.livejournal.com]

I'm betting on anything Jennifer Hudson touches to win (aka her song and her for best supporting actress). She basically killed in that movie. Say what you want about the film itself, but she rocked it out!

And also...I really want Monster House to win for best animated. I know it won't, which makes me very sad, but I that movie was so entertaining to me. I can dream.

[gabsy.livejournal.com]

I think the category that is most truly representative of the quality of work that has been done in movies this year is the Best Actress category. I have seen all of their performances, and they were all truly amazing.

Yet, Helen Mirren seemed to trespass even ACTING as The Queen, so I think she might just take it away. She deserves it. Also, they got best (adapted?) screenplay, and it's possible the movies goes home with that award as well. But that's not as clear, in my mind.

If I ever do become a movie critic, or movie journalist, or something like that, I feel like I will be the only one who doesn't bow down to Clint Eastwood every time he screams ACTION.

[gracefallson-me.livejournal.com]

i don't know what ticks me off the most, actors getting nominated for movies no one has heard of, movies getting nominated that aren't released yet, or actors getting nominated and saying they should win b/c they've "paid their dues"? either way, i will be rooting for Will Smith, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Ryan Gosling in their category and hope that one of the three win!

[queenofattolia.livejournal.com]

But I really, really do not perceive anything but the most perfunctory enthusiasm for O'Toole in this role--I feel like people are backing it for O'Toole's sake, not for the performance or the movie itself. And I like Peter O'Toole.

There was a column last week in the NYT about the total "ick" factor of Venus, which I must admit is certainly keeping me from even considering seeing it. Bleah. It seems ludicrous to award an Oscar to O'Toole now when his greatest role was years ago in Lawrence of Arabia, a film performance that has stood the test of time. If they give it to him this year it will be utterly distasteful and far, far too late.

and it's a major career advancement for Gosling just to be here.

Huh. That's what I thought when Adrien Brody was nominated for The Pianist, and look what happened then. The Academy is made up largely of old farts, but occasionally they do surprise us.

As for Scorsese finally getting Best Director: I'd say if that happens we should start looking for those flying pigs.

[agentsculder.livejournal.com]

I actually think The Queen has a decent shot at winning Best Picture. It's a very safe choice. Babel isn't as well reviewed, and The Departed has the Martin Scorsese baggage. I'd say Little Miss Sunshine has a good chance as well, and you never know what could happen with Letters From Iwo Jima. I just PRAY Clint doesn't win Best Picture and Director. If he does, I swear to God someone in Hollywood needs to get whacked.

[meandstuff.livejournal.com]

I swear to God someone in Hollywood needs to get whacked.

And will be if Cleo's theory about Robert De Niro (http://cleolinda.livejournal.com/251486.html#cutid1) making phone calls proves correct.

[kittenkatt.livejournal.com]

I snagged one of grrliz's Oscar Team Icons (http://community.livejournal.com/grrliz_icons/119958.html?style=mine#cutid1).... "Team Marky Mark". I haven't even seen the movie, but I think that he's just so much better than his pants-dropping wayward youth would imply.

I'm really glad to see Gosling pop up in there. That's another one I think is underrated.

[agentsculder.livejournal.com]

OMG thank you for the link to those Oscar icons. I so need the Team Funky Bunch and Team Scorsese ones.

[revenantrose.livejournal.com]

A tiny little tumbleweed of respect for the Oscars has wafted into my heart with the shutout of Dreamgirls for Best Picture. Just because two of the performances where phenomenal and the costumes were glitzy doesn't mean it was a good movie. It really wasn't. It was barely more than a concert with dialogue interludes.

I suspect the Hudson song was only included so they could have her perform onstage, 'cause honestly, how much more Beyonce can the Oscars take after the Night of Beyonce and Her Necklaces? They couldn't nominate her for 'And I Am Telling You' but they wanted her to sing something. Thank god, 'cause this whole 'Listen' thing grates me. I see it as the musical equivalent of her 'out of the jar' poses on the GG carpet. Girlfriend, you're beautiful, you're popular, you're loaded. Just admit that JH can sing you down the creek, ok?

You know, I never understood the hatred some people have for Forrest Gump until I learned it won over Shawshank. I even like FG and it still pisses me off. Who were they kidding? My reaction was second only to finding out that Julia Roberts won her Oscar over Ellen Bursytn in Requiem for a Dream. I kind of can't look directly at her anymore.

Thank you for the great Oscar breakdown. :) You're always way more entertaining that Entertainment Weekly, who tend to get very precious and The Day Has Come about the whole thing. It's their bread and butter for about half their issues, after all.

[celticwisdom.livejournal.com]

I loved Mark Wahlberg in The Departed. It felt like the director wasn't even there. Like he just told him, "You know what? Just be yourself. I'm not even going to give you any lines, just curse a lot" and then he ran with it. The end result being a lot of your mama jokes and a rather hilarious performance in an otherwise heavy movie. He was pretty much my favorite person in the movie.

unrelated

[sparkliefairy.livejournal.com]

the Barnes and Noble by my house is already taking reservations for HP #7. I put my name down even though they dont know the cost or even the release date. Any spoilers for me?

[ironclad1609.livejournal.com]

Best picture
Babel
Best director
Martin Scorsese
Best actor
Forest Whitaker
Best actress
Helen Mirren
Best supporting actress
Jennifer Hudson
Best supporting actor
Djimon Hounsou
(I want this man to win, he's been awesome for years)
Best foreign language film
El Laberinto del Fauno (aka Pan's Labyrinth)
Best animated feature film
Cars
Best adapted screenplay
Children of Men
Best original screenplay
Babel
Best music (score)
Babel
Best music (song)
Our Town - Cars
Best documentary feature
An Inconvenient Truth
Best visual effects
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Best cinematography
Children of Men
Best art direction
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
probably
Best costume design
Dreamgirls
Best make-up
Apocalypto
Best sound mixing
Blood Diamond
Sound editing
Letters from Iwo Jima
Best film editing
Children of Men

Wild guesses, some of which are what I want to happen. We'll talk when it is all over ;)

[green-queen.livejournal.com]

Penelope Cruz is a really amazing actress in Spanish and just a hopeless actress in English. It never ceases to amaze me.

You know what I think is working against Babel right now? Crash. Crash and Babel are both 'issue films' with large, intersecting casts and big acting. Crash upset Brokeback by winning last year, so that may work against Babel rather than for it.

[evilbearhunter.livejournal.com]

I thought that too.

[havocs-roman.livejournal.com]

Oh, yes. I've already read a reference to Babel as "this year's Crash. It was not a compliment.

[adoresixtyfour.livejournal.com]

I'm glad Dreamgirls didn't get a Best Picture nomination--it's a decent movie, but it's not great--though I am glad jennifer Hudson got nominated, and i hope she wins. I'd really, really love to see Alan Arkin win for Best Supporting Actor, too. Now if only I'd seen more than a couple of the nominated movies...

[apoplexia.livejournal.com]

No, I think Kate Winslet really needs to play a mental (http://www.tv.com/extras/episode-3-kate-winslet/episode/453930/reviews.html?review_id=52851) to be in with a chance.

[havocs-roman.livejournal.com]

Yay, predictions! The best part of the Oscars...!

Not having seen Venus yet, but already preparing to adore it: part of me really wants Peter O'Toole to get a legitimate Oscar before he kicks it (particularly since, three years ago, it seemed to mean so much to him); a significantly larger part of me rebels against awarding Lawrence of Arabia, and so on, for Venus --- it's almost worse than not awarding him at all.

Realistically, though, this Oscar is either Whitaker's (apparently well-deserved. I wouldn't know. The movie's not out here, yet. *grumble*) or DiCaprio's (I'm surprised his movies didn't cancel each other out, and that BD got him more votes than TD -- if they all gang up, he's got an actual chance).

When the Halle "upset" happened, Sissy Spacek also had strong competition from Nicole Kidman. To this day, I think they cancelled each other out, and Halle got lucky. I don't see any such competition for Ms. Mirren this year, not even Streep. Unless the Academy gets shamefaced for having nominated THIRTY-yr-old Kate Winslet FIVE times without ever actually awarding her.

Either way, Penelope Cruz is a winner. H'wood admitting that she CAN act, Spain loving her for being their first BA-nominee... If she pulls an upset win, even better. It's a good year for her.

... apparently, Volver couldn't even be considered for Best Foreign Picture because it wasn't among the Spanish candidates. At, er, most, it could aim for Best Picture, but obviously, the competition there is just too tough.

I think I'll have a stroke if Clint Eastwood wins again. I like the guy. I like his movies. He's got FOUR Oscars already, TWO for BD. How many more does the Academy need to give him? He's a legend. I get it. The business is still alive, peeps! Award the rest of mankind, for a change! *rambles on and on*

As with O'Toole, part of me doesn't want Scorcese to win, anymore. It's not even about The Departed's place within his legendary masterful insultingly ignored work. He's Scorcese. He's lost FIVE times, one of them to Million Dollar Baby (I just can't get over this one.). If he does win, I hope he sticks to a Hitchcockian 'Thank you'. Better yet, don't show up.

... it's better to join the ranks of Hitchcock than Gwyneth Paltrow's.[/rant]

[chocolat-violet.livejournal.com]

I'm rooting for Dreamgirls. If any movie should win the Best Song, then it should be a musical (in most cases.) And if Happy Feet doesn't win the Best Animated Feature, I am going to put the smackdown on someone.

I noticed the one thing that hasn't been discussed is Ellen Degeneres(sp?). I think she's a good comedian. I hope she's got a great introduction and opening monologue cooking.

[whynoteh.livejournal.com]

Leaving the cinema after seeing The Departed, I remarked to the boything that I had a hard time comprehending how awesome Marky Mark was. The boything looked at me funny. Turns out, never heard of Marky Mark.

Then he got pissed with me for going ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?!? Good times.

Seriously though! Marky Mark! Goddamn.